Plow plane (or Table saw) followed by rabbet (or table saw)
Rabbet followed by Rabbet. Why the chamfer?
#12 round (get as much as you can, but be warned it's less than what's pictured.)
#4 and #2 round used to get the profile as close as possible to what was drawn on the two ends of the piece.
The ellipse is approximately a 1/2" circle at the bottom. The shape of the profile prevents a the #4 from reaching it all (especially along the right hand side, where the radius expands). This portion is, again, pretty close to free hand. The hollows will have chutes to follow. Creating a consistent profile is easy as each pass creates a new guide. Getting that shape to the desired profile may take practice.
A small side round would have been ideal and completely changed how I attacked this while eliminating the minimal scraping after. Can you see what steps would have been different?
And the completed version:
The shoe starts out as a 13" section with this profile (Mortise already in). I then rounded the corner by drawing the profile on the back, cutting it out with a coping saw and carving.